The experts in economic projections have many mixed results as to the actual outlook for construction through the 2nd QTR of next year. How do you currently see the workload currently and future backlog in your geographic area?
I think we all had high expectations of quick recovery or at least not going to see a sharp downturn. I am located in West and I have a good friend in roofing in the Southeast and we both see a big drop in backlog and activity of opportunities out there. Based on that I don't see a very promising quick recovery.
That is an excellent insight into the issue. The deeper that I am looking into the data, not only in North American but also Globally, construction backlog is shrinking worldwide. The baseline forecast I see from the data envisions a 5.2 percent contraction in global GDP by the end of 2020.
We are not a domestic dependent economy any longer as most countries are not. Globalization is not new, and we have to concern ourselves with both local as well as world recessions.
Seven world-renowned economists predict the pandemic is expected to plunge most countries into recession in 2020, with per capita income contracting in the most significant number of countries globally since 1870. Advanced economies are projected to shrink 7 percent. That weakness will spill over to the outlook for emerging market and developing economies, which are forecasted to contract by 2.5 percent as they cope with their own domestic outbreaks of the virus. This would represent the weakest showing by this group of economies in at least sixty years.
I am not a doom and gloom person, but I am a firm believer in unmanipulated data. Regardless of what the outcome turns out to be, all data points to a global recession of some magnitude. I have been recommending to our clients, if they have t done so, to do a full evaluation of their companies operations. The analysis should cover all weaknesses, vulnerabilities, and strongpoints. By planning and properly scaling your business, you will be well prepared for any economic outcome.
We are now seeing tighning margins and a decresing backlog. Things seem to tightning up outlook wise going inot 2021