Tariffs in 2026: A new era of trade policy and global risk

By The Coffee Shops™.

Understanding how tariffs will impact the metal construction industry is important for business leaders to plan for success.   

At the 2026 Metal Construction Association Winter Meeting, economic analyst Alex Chausovsky delivered a sobering assessment of the evolving U.S. tariff landscape under President Trump’s second term. His remarks highlighted a dramatic shift in strategy compared to Trump’s first term, with far-reaching implications for businesses and global alliances. 

A lone-wolf approach to tariffs 

“The biggest difference in my view,” Alex explained, “is that he [Trump] no longer cares or even desires to get anyone's support or backing on this course of action. He's decided, 'I'm going to go at it alone.'” 

Since January 2025, the administration has implemented roughly 75 tariff actions, all through executive orders. This unilateral approach even bypasses traditional party support. “He doesn’t even need the backing of his own Republican Party,” Alex noted. “He’s just saying, 'Executive order, I decided, I’m gonna do this.'” 

One recent example: a 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran, announced via tweet. “It’s very difficult to actually answer, well, what does ‘doing business with Iran’ mean? How do you apply that?” Alex said, underscoring the ambiguity and complexity of enforcement. 

Tariffs as a geopolitical tool 

Unlike Trump’s first term, which focused on reducing trade deficits, tariffs now serve broader geopolitical aims. “We’re talking about things like critical minerals for the Chinese, immigration and drug trade in North America, NATO defense spending and even internal politics in Brazil,” Alex explained. 

This expansion of negotiating points introduces significant risks. “The biggest risk factor we’re facing right now,” he warned, “is an alienation of our traditional allies… pushing them into the very welcoming and open arms of our main adversaries, namely countries like China and Russia.” 

He cited India’s recent overtures toward Beijing and Moscow as an alarming example saying, “Prime Minister Modi was seen at a summit in Beijing recently, being very friendly — beyond normal levels — with President Xi and President Putin. That is not the kind of thing we want to maintain over time.” 

Legal challenges and what’s next 

Currently, three major tariff categories dominate U.S. trade policy: 

• IEEPA tariffs: Country-specific, via executive order
• Section 232 tariffs: Product-specific, requiring congressional investigation
• Section 301 tariffs: Targeting anti-dumping practices, primarily against China

But the legal foundation of IEEPA tariffs is under scrutiny. “We could have an imminent ruling from the Supreme Court that says IEEPA tariffs are unconstitutional,” Alex revealed. If overturned, the government faces a logistical nightmare, he says. “We’ve collected something like $130 billion worth of tariffs, and there is no process that exists right now for the government to pay that money back.” 

Impact on businesses and inflation 

For companies hoping tariffs will disappear, Alex was blunt. “They’re not going anywhere. 2026 is going to just have an evolution of the tariff landscape.” Expect new tariffs on critical sectors like semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, robotics and industrial machinery — categories that could significantly affect manufacturing and construction. 

The economic ripple effect is clear. “My expectation is, we probably end the year somewhere in that 3% to 5% range for inflation,” he said, citing the shift from companies absorbing tariff costs to passing them on to customers. “The bulk of the impact of tariffs is still out in front of us.” 

The bottom line 

Alex’s advice to businesses is to focus on profitability, not just revenue growth. “You don’t want to have customers and business opportunities where it’s actually costing you money to do business,” he cautioned. With tariffs reshaping global trade and inflationary pressures mounting, vigilance and adaptability will be critical for survival in 2026.